KDTW / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

89%

87%

62%

60%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.8¢Risks 79.75u

EPSNO 20.2¢Risks 20.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.25u · EPS −20.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:46+00:00	73.4%	34.6%	83.1%	21.9%	20.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	73.4%	34.6%	83.1%	21.9%	20.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:39+00:00	73.4%	34.6%	83.1%	21.9%	20.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	73.4%	34.6%	83.1%	21.9%	20.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	83.5%	34.6%	83.1%	21.9%	20.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:51+00:00	83.5%	34.6%	83.1%	21.9%	20.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	83.5%	31.9%	83.1%	21.9%	20.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	83.5%	31.9%	83.1%	21.9%	20.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	83.5%	31.9%	89.5%	21.9%	20.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	83.5%	31.9%	89.5%	21.9%	20.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	83.5%	31.9%	89.5%	21.9%	20.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	84.3%	31.9%	89.5%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	84.3%	31.9%	89.5%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	84.3%	31.9%	89.5%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	84.3%	31.9%	89.5%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	84.3%	31.9%	89.5%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	84.3%	31.9%	92.9%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	84.3%	31.9%	92.9%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	84.3%	31.9%	92.9%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	84.8%	31.9%	92.9%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	84.8%	31.9%	92.9%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:57+00:00	84.8%	31.9%	92.9%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	84.8%	31.9%	92.9%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:53+00:00	84.8%	31.9%	92.9%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	84.8%	31.9%	94.1%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	84.8%	31.9%	94.1%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	84.8%	31.9%	94.1%	53.1%	74.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00	85.4%	31.9%	94.1%	44.6%	70.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	85.4%	31.9%	94.1%	44.6%	70.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	85.4%	31.9%	94.1%	44.6%	70.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	85.4%	31.9%	94.1%	44.6%	70.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00	85.4%	31.9%	94.1%	44.6%	70.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:56+00:00	85.4%	30.0%	98.5%	44.6%	70.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	85.4%	30.0%	98.5%	44.6%	70.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	85.4%	30.0%	98.5%	44.6%	70.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	72.9%	30.0%	98.5%	44.6%	70.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	72.9%	30.0%	98.5%	44.6%	70.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00	81.3%	31.6%	98.8%	36.4%	67.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	81.3%	31.6%	98.8%	36.4%	67.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	81.3%	31.6%	97.7%	36.4%	67.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	81.3%	31.6%	97.7%	36.4%	67.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	81.3%	31.6%	97.7%	36.4%	67.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	88.8%	31.6%	97.7%	36.4%	87.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	88.8%	31.6%	97.7%	36.4%	87.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	88.8%	31.6%	97.7%	36.4%	87.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	88.8%	31.6%	97.7%	36.4%	87.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:39+00:00	88.8%	60.5%	99.0%	61.6%	87.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	88.8%	60.5%	99.0%	61.6%	87.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	88.8%	60.5%	99.0%	61.6%	87.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	88.8%	60.5%	99.0%	61.6%	87.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	88.8%	60.5%	99.0%	61.6%	87.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	75.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	71.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	87%	72.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	67.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	66.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗