KDTW / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

89%

87%

62%

60%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.8¢Risks 79.75u

EPSNO 20.2¢Risks 20.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.25u · EPS −20.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	39.2%	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	86.3%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.0%	1.4%	31.1%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	63.1%	92.6%	18.0%	—	45.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	51.5%	85.6%	42.7%	—	34.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	47.7%	88.2%	43.2%	—	26.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	80.0%	88.5%	52.4%	69.8%	51.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	89.0%	—	—	50.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	75.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	71.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	87%	72.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	67.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	66.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗