KDTW / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

81%

72%

69%

33%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 60.7¢Risks 60.70u

AIFSNO 39.3¢Risks 39.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +39.30u · AIFS −39.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:20:56+00:00	61.0%	68.5%	88.4%	71.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	61.0%	68.5%	88.4%	71.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	61.0%	68.5%	88.4%	71.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	55.5%	68.5%	88.4%	71.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	55.5%	68.5%	88.4%	71.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00	55.5%	69.1%	88.4%	71.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	55.5%	69.1%	88.4%	71.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	55.5%	69.1%	88.4%	71.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	55.5%	69.1%	63.8%	71.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	55.5%	69.1%	63.8%	71.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	55.5%	69.1%	63.8%	71.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	79.4%	69.1%	63.8%	81.2%	88.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00	79.4%	69.1%	63.8%	81.2%	88.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	79.4%	69.1%	63.8%	81.2%	88.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	79.4%	69.1%	63.8%	81.2%	88.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	79.4%	69.1%	63.8%	81.2%	88.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	79.4%	69.1%	72.2%	81.2%	88.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	79.4%	69.1%	72.2%	81.2%	88.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	79.4%	69.1%	72.2%	81.2%	88.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	33.2%	69.1%	72.2%	81.2%	88.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	33.2%	69.1%	72.2%	81.2%	88.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	33.2%	69.1%	72.2%	81.2%	88.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	88%	76.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	70.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	67.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	66.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	65.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	62.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261026-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 65°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗