KDTW / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

81%

72%

69%

33%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 60.7¢Risks 60.70u

AIFSNO 39.3¢Risks 39.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +39.30u · AIFS −39.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	72.3%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	49.4%	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	4.8%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	49.4%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	3.8%	72.9%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	90.1%	60.4%	32.3%	—	52.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	63.6%	94.3%	50.0%	84.8%	44.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	91.7%	—	—	2.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	88%	76.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	70.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	67.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	66.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	65.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	62.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261026-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 65°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗