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KDTW / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
84%
ICON
74%
EPS
62%
HRES
59%
AIFS
49%
Consensus
64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 66.5¢Risks 66.55u
VS
AIFSNO 33.5¢Risks 33.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.45u · AIFS −33.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00IFS HRES: 59.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00ICON: 86.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:00ICON: 86.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00ICON: 86.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00ICON: 86.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 86.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00ICON: 73.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:38+00:0027.1%60.3%65.3%76.7%86.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:0027.1%60.3%65.3%76.7%86.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:0027.1%60.3%67.4%76.7%86.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0027.1%60.3%67.4%76.7%86.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0027.1%60.3%67.4%76.7%86.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:0049.3%60.3%67.4%76.7%73.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:0049.3%60.3%67.4%76.7%73.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0049.3%60.3%67.4%76.7%73.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0049.3%60.3%67.4%76.7%73.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:0049.3%62.2%83.8%59.0%73.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0049.3%62.2%83.8%59.0%73.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0049.3%62.2%83.8%59.0%73.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:0049.3%62.2%83.8%59.0%73.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:0049.3%62.2%83.8%59.0%73.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 284%70.1°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON74%70.0°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble62%66.8°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES59%67.0°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%66.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
AIFS Single49%65.4°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend46%65.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261026-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗