KDTW / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

74%

63%

59%

49%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.5¢Risks 66.55u

AIFSNO 33.5¢Risks 33.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.45u · AIFS −33.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	43.4%	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	3.4%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	42.9%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	2.6%	67.0%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	86.7%	53.5%	26.3%	—	45.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.6%	56.6%	91.8%	42.7%	80.1%	37.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	88.5%	—	—	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	70.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	70.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	66.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	65.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261026-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Detroit high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗