KDTW / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

40%

30%

21%

20%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.4¢Risks 33.35u

EPSNO 66.6¢Risks 66.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.65u · EPS −66.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T17:48:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00	22.2%	15.9%	36.4%	36.1%	11.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	22.2%	15.9%	36.4%	36.1%	11.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	22.2%	15.9%	36.4%	36.1%	11.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	22.2%	15.9%	36.4%	36.1%	11.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:14+00:00	22.2%	15.9%	36.4%	36.1%	11.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:56+00:00	22.2%	16.8%	50.8%	36.1%	11.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	22.2%	16.8%	50.8%	36.1%	11.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	22.2%	16.8%	50.8%	36.1%	11.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	18.3%	16.8%	50.8%	36.1%	11.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	18.2%	16.8%	50.8%	36.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00	18.2%	17.7%	50.8%	36.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	18.2%	17.7%	50.8%	36.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	18.2%	17.7%	50.8%	36.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	18.2%	17.7%	20.5%	36.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	18.2%	17.7%	20.5%	36.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	18.2%	17.7%	20.5%	36.0%	11.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	41.0%	17.7%	20.5%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:39+00:00	41.0%	17.7%	20.5%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	41.0%	17.7%	20.5%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	41.0%	17.7%	20.5%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	41.0%	17.7%	20.5%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	41.0%	17.7%	27.8%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:52+00:00	41.0%	17.7%	27.8%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	41.0%	17.7%	27.8%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	6.9%	17.7%	27.8%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	6.9%	17.7%	27.8%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	6.9%	17.7%	27.8%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:39+00:00	6.9%	17.7%	27.8%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	6.9%	17.7%	27.8%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	6.9%	17.7%	29.8%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	6.9%	17.7%	29.8%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	6.9%	17.7%	29.8%	48.1%	72.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	17.2%	17.7%	29.8%	48.1%	47.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	17.2%	17.7%	29.8%	48.1%	47.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	17.2%	17.7%	29.8%	48.1%	47.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	17.2%	17.7%	29.8%	48.1%	47.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00	17.2%	18.9%	46.6%	29.8%	47.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	17.2%	18.9%	46.6%	29.8%	47.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	17.2%	18.9%	46.6%	29.8%	47.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00	17.2%	18.9%	46.6%	29.8%	47.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	17.2%	18.9%	46.6%	29.8%	47.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	17.2%	18.9%	46.6%	29.8%	47.2%
2026-10-20T15:32:00+00:00	17.2%	19.5%	46.6%	29.8%	47.2%
2026-10-20T16:17:59+00:00	17.2%	19.5%	46.6%	29.8%	47.2%
2026-10-20T17:03:23+00:00	39.8%	19.5%	20.8%	29.8%	47.2%
2026-10-20T17:48:38+00:00	39.8%	19.5%	20.8%	29.8%	47.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	47%	70.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	69.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	66.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	66.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗