KDTW / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

40%

30%

21%

20%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.4¢Risks 33.35u

EPSNO 66.6¢Risks 66.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.65u · EPS −66.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	17.7%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	16.0%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	0.3%	34.2%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.4%	59.1%	21.4%	6.5%	—	15.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	22.6%	68.3%	13.6%	47.1%	10.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	60.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	12.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	47%	70.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	69.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	66.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	66.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗