WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KDTW / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
17%
EPS
15%
WN2
7%
HRES
5%
AIFS
5%
Consensus
5%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 10.9¢Risks 5.45u
VS
AIFSNO 89.1¢Risks 44.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.55u · AIFS −44.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00IFS HRES: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00IFS HRES: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 5.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:004.9%14.8%6.8%5.0%16.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:004.9%14.8%6.8%5.0%16.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:004.9%14.8%6.8%5.0%16.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:03+00:004.9%14.8%6.8%5.0%16.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON17%60.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble15%64.2°F6.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend10%59.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 27%62.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%59.9°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single5%61.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261027-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗