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KDTW / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Detroit, MIHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
17%
EPS
15%
WN2
7%
HRES
5%
AIFS
5%
Consensus
5%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 10.9¢Risks 5.45u
VS
AIFSNO 89.1¢Risks 44.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.55u · AIFS −44.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.1%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.4%———0.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:003.9%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:001.7%———7.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0014.0%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:006.8%———6.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:006.1%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0013.1%———4.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:007.1%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.5%———6.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.1%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0040.0%———7.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0021.6%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0042.6%———9.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0010.0%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0016.2%———10.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0022.0%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0023.9%———12.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0017.4%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0028.6%———11.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0060.0%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0030.9%———7.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0029.1%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:004.4%—10.3%—9.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:002.7%—7.8%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.9%———6.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.2%—3.1%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.2%—41.9%—3.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.1%—34.4%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:002.0%—1.2%—3.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.1%—1.8%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:001.1%0.8%26.5%22.8%1.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.1%—26.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON17%60.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble15%64.2°F6.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend10%59.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 27%62.9°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%59.9°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single5%61.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDTW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDTW-20261027-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Detroit runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗