KEWR / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

97%

95%

92%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 96.1¢Risks 24.03u

AIFSNO 3.9¢Risks 0.97u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +0.97u · AIFS −0.97u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:29+00:00	72.3%	94.4%	67.9%	68.6%	91.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	72.3%	93.5%	67.9%	68.6%	91.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	72.3%	93.5%	75.4%	68.6%	91.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	72.3%	93.5%	75.4%	68.6%	91.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	72.3%	93.5%	75.4%	68.6%	91.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	72.3%	93.5%	75.4%	68.6%	91.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	78.1%	93.5%	75.4%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	78.1%	93.5%	75.4%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	78.1%	93.5%	75.4%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	78.1%	93.5%	75.4%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	78.1%	93.5%	74.6%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:15+00:00	78.1%	93.5%	74.6%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	78.1%	93.5%	74.6%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	78.1%	93.5%	74.6%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	75.6%	93.5%	74.6%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:53+00:00	75.6%	93.5%	74.6%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	75.6%	93.5%	74.6%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:10+00:00	75.6%	93.5%	74.6%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:42+00:00	75.6%	93.5%	79.1%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	75.6%	93.5%	79.1%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-13T06:31:59+00:00	75.6%	93.5%	79.1%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	75.6%	93.5%	79.1%	76.1%	93.5%
2026-10-13T08:02:28+00:00	86.1%	93.5%	79.1%	81.6%	99.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	86.1%	93.5%	79.1%	81.6%	99.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	86.1%	93.5%	79.1%	81.6%	99.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	86.1%	93.5%	79.1%	81.6%	99.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	86.1%	96.0%	94.3%	81.6%	99.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	86.1%	96.0%	94.3%	81.6%	99.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	86.1%	96.0%	94.3%	81.6%	99.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	86.1%	96.0%	94.3%	81.6%	99.9%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	90.8%	96.0%	94.4%	81.6%	99.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	90.8%	96.1%	94.4%	81.6%	99.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:11+00:00	90.8%	96.1%	94.4%	81.6%	99.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	90.8%	96.1%	94.4%	81.6%	99.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	90.8%	96.1%	97.2%	81.6%	99.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	90.8%	96.1%	97.2%	81.6%	99.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	90.8%	96.1%	97.2%	81.6%	99.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	83.6%	96.1%	97.2%	81.6%	100.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	83.6%	96.1%	97.2%	81.6%	100.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	83.6%	96.1%	97.2%	81.6%	100.0%
2026-10-13T21:42:50+00:00	83.6%	96.1%	97.2%	81.6%	100.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	83.6%	96.1%	97.2%	83.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	83.6%	96.1%	95.5%	83.1%	100.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	83.6%	96.1%	95.5%	83.1%	100.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	83.6%	96.1%	95.5%	83.1%	100.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	97.8%	96.1%	95.5%	83.1%	100.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	97.8%	96.1%	95.5%	83.1%	100.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	92.2%	100.0%	95.0%	97.4%	100.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	92.2%	100.0%	95.0%	97.4%	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	75.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
ICON	>99%	69.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000
IFS HRES	97%	61.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0007
WeatherNext 2	95%	59.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0025
AIFS Single	92%	60.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0061
NWS forecast	59%	55.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
National Blend	41%	54.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3457

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗