KEWR / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

97%

95%

92%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 96.1¢Risks 24.03u

AIFSNO 3.9¢Risks 0.97u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +0.97u · AIFS −0.97u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	96.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	86.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	99.0%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	99.8%	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	94.8%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	96.1%	—	—	87.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	98.8%	97.1%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	99.6%	96.2%	45.1%	—	84.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	99.0%	81.6%	—	84.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	84.0%	90.3%	51.5%	—	80.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	86.0%	87.7%	97.4%	—	69.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	86.1%	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	90.6%	90.3%	85.7%	—	70.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	94.4%	85.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	99.7%	84.4%	77.2%	—	69.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	92.5%	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	100.0%	99.9%	82.8%	—	81.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	98.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.3%	—	99.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.0%	—	99.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	91.2%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.5%	100.0%	99.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	100.0%	99.9%	99.6%	—	99.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	—	99.2%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	75.4%	100.0%	100.0%	99.2%	100.0%	98.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	—	98.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.5%	100.0%	99.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	100.0%	100.0%	99.0%	—	98.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	97.8%	93.0%	93.5%	—	83.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	42.1%	43.7%	16.1%	5.2%	12.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	48.4%	40.2%	19.2%	—	15.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	75.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
ICON	>99%	69.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000
IFS HRES	97%	61.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0007
WeatherNext 2	95%	59.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0025
AIFS Single	92%	60.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0061
NWS forecast	59%	55.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
National Blend	41%	54.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.3457

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗