KEWR / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

79%

49%

34%

32%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.5¢Risks 57.45u

EPSNO 42.5¢Risks 42.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.55u · EPS −42.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:10+00:00	84.1%	54.0%	89.4%	64.3%	60.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:42+00:00	84.1%	54.0%	90.5%	64.3%	60.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	84.1%	54.0%	90.5%	64.3%	60.7%
2026-10-13T06:31:59+00:00	84.1%	54.0%	90.5%	64.3%	60.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	84.1%	54.0%	90.5%	64.3%	60.7%
2026-10-13T08:02:29+00:00	70.9%	54.0%	90.5%	52.8%	85.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	70.9%	54.0%	90.5%	52.8%	85.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	70.9%	54.0%	90.5%	52.8%	85.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	70.9%	54.0%	90.5%	52.8%	85.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	70.9%	55.0%	77.6%	52.8%	85.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	70.9%	55.0%	77.6%	52.8%	85.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	70.9%	55.0%	77.6%	52.8%	85.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	70.9%	55.0%	77.6%	52.8%	85.8%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	60.4%	55.0%	77.5%	52.8%	85.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	60.4%	55.8%	77.5%	52.8%	85.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:25+00:00	43.6%	55.8%	80.9%	46.5%	88.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	43.6%	55.8%	80.9%	46.5%	88.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	43.6%	55.8%	80.9%	46.5%	88.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	43.6%	55.8%	80.9%	46.5%	88.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	43.6%	55.8%	80.9%	46.5%	88.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:04+00:00	43.6%	55.8%	80.9%	46.5%	88.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	44.8%	55.8%	80.9%	46.5%	74.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	44.8%	55.8%	80.9%	46.5%	74.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	44.8%	55.8%	80.9%	46.5%	74.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	44.8%	55.8%	80.9%	46.5%	74.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:02+00:00	44.8%	55.8%	80.9%	25.5%	74.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:30+00:00	44.8%	31.3%	84.0%	25.5%	74.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	44.8%	31.3%	84.0%	25.5%	74.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	44.8%	31.3%	84.0%	25.5%	74.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	54.3%	31.3%	84.0%	25.5%	74.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	54.3%	31.3%	84.0%	25.5%	74.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	72.0%	38.4%	92.7%	36.0%	61.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	72.0%	38.4%	88.8%	36.0%	61.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:42+00:00	72.0%	38.4%	88.8%	36.0%	61.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	72.0%	38.4%	88.8%	36.0%	61.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	71.4%	38.4%	88.8%	36.0%	48.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	71.4%	38.4%	88.8%	36.0%	48.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	71.4%	38.4%	88.8%	36.0%	48.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	71.4%	38.4%	88.8%	36.0%	48.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	71.4%	38.4%	88.8%	36.0%	48.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:02+00:00	71.4%	31.5%	83.3%	36.0%	48.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	71.4%	31.5%	83.3%	36.0%	48.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	71.4%	31.5%	83.3%	36.0%	48.9%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	79.1%	31.5%	83.3%	33.9%	48.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	79.1%	31.6%	83.3%	33.9%	48.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	61.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0279
AIFS Single	79%	61.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0437
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1954
ICON	49%	58.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2611
IFS HRES	34%	56.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4369
IFS Ensemble	32%	56.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4679
National Blend	24%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.5700

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗