KEWR / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

79%

49%

34%

32%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.5¢Risks 57.45u

EPSNO 42.5¢Risks 42.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.55u · EPS −42.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	34.1%	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	78.9%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	42.2%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	6.4%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	57.7%	11.5%	11.5%	—	30.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	68.3%	29.1%	35.7%	—	39.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	38.0%	31.6%	32.3%	—	23.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	77.0%	44.4%	54.0%	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	3.6%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	83.2%	72.8%	40.9%	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	64.2%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	62.9%	78.6%	22.8%	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	39.3%	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	33.9%	72.6%	16.6%	—	10.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	40.6%	68.2%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	50.0%	73.7%	13.6%	—	13.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	36.3%	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	55.1%	65.1%	20.4%	—	21.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	47.9%	58.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	52.2%	42.4%	24.7%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	52.2%	42.2%	0.1%	—	14.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	50.0%	46.5%	20.7%	—	18.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	50.0%	57.2%	22.5%	—	26.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	53.7%	59.9%	19.1%	7.5%	25.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	51.3%	63.9%	18.2%	—	31.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	54.0%	72.7%	34.3%	14.9%	28.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	45.8%	70.0%	33.8%	—	33.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.8%	57.2%	85.4%	35.8%	23.4%	30.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.6%	51.5%	79.8%	22.4%	—	19.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	53.2%	78.6%	16.1%	17.1%	14.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	64.5%	81.9%	30.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	61.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0279
AIFS Single	79%	61.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0437
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1954
ICON	49%	58.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2611
IFS HRES	34%	56.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4369
IFS Ensemble	32%	56.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4679
National Blend	24%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.5700

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗