KEWR / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

89%

78%

78%

53%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.6¢Risks 75.65u

ICONNO 24.4¢Risks 24.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.35u · ICON −24.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:33+00:00	88.5%	55.1%	92.3%	35.2%	77.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	88.5%	55.1%	92.3%	35.2%	77.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	88.5%	55.1%	98.8%	35.2%	77.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	88.5%	55.1%	98.8%	35.2%	77.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:51+00:00	88.5%	55.1%	98.8%	35.2%	77.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	88.5%	55.1%	98.8%	35.2%	77.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	69.2%	55.1%	98.8%	47.6%	75.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	69.2%	55.1%	98.8%	47.6%	75.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	69.2%	55.1%	98.8%	47.6%	75.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	69.2%	55.1%	98.8%	47.6%	75.1%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	69.2%	55.1%	93.4%	47.6%	75.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	69.2%	55.1%	93.4%	47.6%	75.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	69.2%	55.1%	93.4%	47.6%	75.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	78.4%	55.1%	93.4%	47.6%	75.1%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	78.4%	55.1%	93.4%	47.6%	75.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:24+00:00	78.4%	55.1%	93.4%	47.6%	75.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	78.4%	55.1%	93.4%	47.6%	75.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	79.3%	28.2%	91.4%	25.8%	87.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	79.3%	28.2%	91.4%	25.8%	87.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	79.3%	28.2%	91.4%	25.8%	87.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	79.3%	28.2%	98.0%	25.8%	87.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	79.3%	28.2%	98.0%	25.8%	87.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	79.3%	28.2%	98.0%	25.8%	87.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:48+00:00	84.2%	28.2%	98.0%	25.8%	84.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	84.2%	28.2%	98.0%	25.8%	84.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	84.2%	28.2%	98.0%	25.8%	84.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	84.2%	28.2%	98.0%	25.8%	84.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	84.2%	28.2%	98.0%	66.5%	84.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:14+00:00	84.2%	28.2%	98.0%	66.5%	84.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:45+00:00	84.2%	28.2%	98.0%	66.5%	84.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	84.2%	28.2%	98.0%	66.5%	84.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	87.9%	28.2%	98.0%	66.5%	84.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	87.9%	28.2%	98.0%	66.5%	84.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	87.9%	28.2%	98.0%	66.5%	84.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	87.9%	28.2%	98.0%	66.5%	84.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	92.0%	78.0%	98.7%	72.9%	75.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	92.0%	78.0%	98.7%	72.9%	75.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	92.0%	78.0%	98.8%	72.9%	75.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	92.0%	78.0%	98.8%	72.9%	75.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	92.0%	78.0%	98.8%	72.9%	75.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	92.0%	78.0%	98.8%	72.9%	75.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	89.1%	78.0%	98.8%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	89.1%	78.0%	98.8%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	89.1%	78.0%	98.8%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:47+00:00	89.1%	78.0%	98.8%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	89.1%	78.0%	97.9%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	89.1%	78.0%	97.9%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	89.1%	78.0%	97.9%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	89.1%	78.0%	97.9%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	89.1%	78.0%	97.9%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	89.1%	78.0%	97.9%	78.2%	53.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	89.1%	78.0%	97.9%	78.2%	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	67.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	66.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	64.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	64.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	62.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	53%	61.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗