KEWR / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

89%

78%

78%

53%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.6¢Risks 75.65u

ICONNO 24.4¢Risks 24.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.35u · ICON −24.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	52.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	1.0%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	44.8%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	23.3%	68.2%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	6.7%	61.8%	10.5%	—	44.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	89.7%	65.0%	78.5%	—	48.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	91.9%	81.1%	76.1%	—	47.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	86.4%	85.5%	24.2%	—	36.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	4.7%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	59.1%	82.2%	13.4%	—	22.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	61.0%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	67.0%	81.6%	5.7%	—	36.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	75.8%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	64.4%	65.3%	34.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	67.4%	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	82.3%	44.2%	44.2%	—	10.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	80.3%	3.0%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	80.3%	45.9%	54.1%	—	42.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	85.6%	60.5%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	77.0%	69.9%	70.8%	0.0%	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	74.2%	61.1%	76.9%	0.9%	—	63.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	57.0%	69.0%	84.7%	36.3%	62.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	83.3%	78.4%	84.0%	—	53.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	72.4%	74.4%	81.8%	0.0%	63.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	68.7%	85.0%	74.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	68.1%	89.3%	70.5%	54.0%	65.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	79.9%	88.9%	77.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	78.8%	89.8%	76.6%	82.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	71.5%	90.8%	57.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	89.8%	75.0%	92.9%	68.3%	88.3%	62.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	92.7%	97.7%	85.0%	—	73.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	67.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0004
AIFS Single	89%	66.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0119
IFS HRES	78%	64.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0475
IFS Ensemble	78%	64.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0484
National Blend	56%	62.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1927
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954
ICON	53%	61.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗