KEWR / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

75%

70%

61%

48%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.4¢Risks 71.35u

EPSNO 28.6¢Risks 28.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.65u · EPS −28.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	83.2%	47.7%	92.1%	60.0%	49.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	83.2%	47.7%	92.1%	60.0%	49.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	83.2%	47.7%	92.1%	60.0%	49.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	83.2%	47.7%	92.1%	60.0%	49.2%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	82.7%	47.7%	92.0%	60.0%	49.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	82.7%	47.7%	92.0%	60.0%	49.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:11+00:00	82.7%	47.7%	92.0%	60.0%	49.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	82.7%	47.7%	92.0%	60.0%	49.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	82.7%	47.7%	92.3%	60.0%	49.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	82.7%	47.7%	92.3%	60.0%	49.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	82.7%	47.7%	92.3%	60.0%	49.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	87.3%	47.7%	92.3%	60.0%	75.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	87.3%	47.7%	92.3%	60.0%	75.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	87.3%	47.7%	92.3%	60.0%	75.3%
2026-10-13T21:42:50+00:00	87.3%	47.7%	92.3%	60.0%	75.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	87.3%	47.7%	92.3%	61.2%	75.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	87.3%	47.7%	95.0%	61.2%	75.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	87.3%	47.7%	95.0%	61.2%	75.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	87.3%	47.7%	95.0%	61.2%	75.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	69.7%	47.7%	95.0%	61.2%	75.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	69.7%	47.7%	95.0%	61.2%	75.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	74.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	73.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	69.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	68.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	67.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	66.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261020-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗