KEWR / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

75%

70%

61%

48%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.4¢Risks 71.35u

EPSNO 28.6¢Risks 28.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.65u · EPS −28.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	42.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	—	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	57.5%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	47.4%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.0%	21.3%	67.6%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	65.7%	72.5%	20.9%	—	42.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	77.4%	57.3%	36.4%	—	31.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	73.0%	61.3%	12.2%	—	26.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	63.3%	64.8%	23.6%	—	29.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	9.5%	75.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	74.9%	50.8%	45.0%	—	30.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	61.0%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	70.1%	62.1%	67.8%	—	15.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	62.4%	44.6%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	74.1%	60.9%	67.8%	—	41.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	63.9%	56.6%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	46.1%	51.0%	47.1%	—	39.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	51.0%	51.0%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	28.5%	51.0%	37.8%	0.0%	27.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	48.9%	27.9%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	65.9%	51.1%	43.5%	—	23.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	59.0%	55.6%	0.6%	—	22.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	54.6%	55.8%	28.9%	0.0%	19.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	63.0%	70.7%	40.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	68.0%	58.7%	45.0%	51.2%	25.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	70.9%	62.7%	46.1%	—	23.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	61.9%	63.2%	36.8%	50.0%	21.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	75.8%	71.2%	48.6%	—	30.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	81.8%	77.8%	62.8%	77.8%	34.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	80.8%	44.0%	—	26.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	74.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	75%	73.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	69.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	68.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	67.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	66.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261020-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗