KEWR / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

76%

70%

32%

28%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.9¢Risks 55.90u

HRESNO 44.1¢Risks 44.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.10u · HRES −44.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T17:48:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:34+00:00	91.8%	72.3%	87.2%	63.6%	72.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	91.8%	72.3%	87.2%	63.6%	72.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	91.8%	72.3%	94.3%	63.6%	72.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	91.8%	72.3%	94.3%	63.6%	72.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:51+00:00	91.8%	72.3%	94.3%	63.6%	72.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	91.8%	72.3%	94.3%	63.6%	72.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	75.4%	72.3%	94.3%	65.9%	84.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	75.4%	72.3%	94.3%	65.9%	84.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	75.4%	72.3%	94.3%	65.9%	84.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	75.4%	72.3%	94.3%	65.9%	84.5%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	75.4%	72.3%	89.3%	65.9%	84.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	75.4%	72.3%	89.3%	65.9%	84.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	75.4%	72.3%	89.3%	65.9%	84.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	79.8%	72.3%	89.3%	65.9%	84.4%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	79.8%	72.3%	89.3%	65.9%	84.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:24+00:00	79.8%	72.3%	89.3%	65.9%	84.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	79.8%	72.3%	89.3%	65.9%	84.4%
2026-10-17T04:40:50+00:00	81.2%	53.1%	88.3%	49.3%	71.4%
2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00	81.2%	53.1%	88.3%	49.3%	71.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	81.2%	53.1%	87.4%	49.3%	71.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	81.2%	53.1%	87.4%	49.3%	71.4%
2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00	71.5%	53.1%	87.4%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	71.5%	53.1%	87.4%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00	71.5%	53.1%	87.4%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	71.5%	53.1%	87.4%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	71.5%	53.1%	87.4%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	71.5%	78.2%	85.3%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	71.5%	78.2%	85.3%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	71.5%	78.2%	85.3%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	71.5%	78.2%	85.3%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	70.7%	78.2%	85.2%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	70.7%	80.3%	85.2%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	70.7%	80.3%	85.2%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	70.7%	80.3%	75.7%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	70.7%	80.3%	75.7%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	70.7%	80.3%	75.7%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	70.7%	80.3%	75.7%	35.2%	45.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	55.2%	80.3%	75.7%	32.3%	35.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	55.2%	80.3%	75.7%	32.3%	35.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	55.2%	80.3%	75.7%	32.3%	35.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:47+00:00	55.2%	80.3%	75.7%	32.3%	35.6%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	55.2%	80.3%	55.3%	32.3%	35.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	55.2%	80.3%	55.3%	32.3%	35.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	55.2%	80.3%	55.3%	32.3%	35.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	55.2%	80.3%	55.3%	32.3%	35.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	59.5%	80.3%	55.3%	32.3%	35.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	59.5%	80.3%	55.3%	32.3%	35.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	59.5%	80.3%	55.3%	32.3%	35.6%
2026-10-20T04:03:27+00:00	71.5%	58.3%	80.8%	22.5%	32.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00	71.5%	58.3%	80.8%	22.5%	32.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00	71.5%	58.3%	82.5%	22.5%	32.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	71.5%	58.3%	82.5%	22.5%	32.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00	71.5%	58.3%	82.5%	22.5%	32.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	74.6%	58.3%	82.5%	22.5%	32.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	74.6%	58.3%	82.5%	22.5%	32.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00	74.6%	58.3%	82.5%	22.5%	32.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	74.6%	58.3%	82.5%	22.5%	32.6%
2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00	74.6%	67.9%	84.9%	27.7%	32.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00	74.6%	67.9%	84.9%	27.7%	32.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	74.6%	67.9%	84.9%	27.7%	32.6%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	74.6%	67.9%	84.9%	27.7%	32.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00	74.6%	67.9%	84.9%	27.7%	32.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00	74.6%	67.9%	84.9%	27.7%	32.5%
2026-10-20T15:31:32+00:00	74.6%	70.0%	84.9%	27.7%	32.5%
2026-10-20T16:17:56+00:00	74.6%	70.0%	84.9%	27.7%	32.5%
2026-10-20T17:03:06+00:00	76.2%	70.0%	84.1%	27.7%	32.5%
2026-10-20T17:48:33+00:00	76.2%	70.0%	84.1%	27.7%	32.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	66.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	66.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	65.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	64.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	32%	61.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	61.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗