KEWR / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

76%

70%

32%

28%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.9¢Risks 55.90u

HRESNO 44.1¢Risks 44.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.10u · HRES −44.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	40.7%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	41.3%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	92.9%	—	—	62.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	48.0%	80.2%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.7%	—	82.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	73.7%	61.8%	24.1%	—	38.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	54.4%	49.3%	43.4%	—	48.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	75.5%	47.7%	77.2%	—	50.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	69.2%	54.0%	71.9%	—	28.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	24.3%	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	55.8%	24.5%	63.9%	—	26.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	49.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	31.4%	30.7%	40.5%	—	22.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	41.1%	47.3%	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	20.9%	45.4%	25.1%	—	16.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	35.2%	40.6%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	41.3%	47.1%	28.7%	—	12.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	17.7%	49.0%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	34.0%	46.9%	19.7%	—	9.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	43.7%	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	41.3%	32.1%	25.5%	—	12.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	19.0%	36.7%	0.7%	—	9.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	35.2%	38.5%	7.2%	2.2%	9.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	38.1%	40.5%	6.6%	—	10.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	45.0%	45.0%	16.6%	40.1%	13.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	48.7%	15.8%	—	12.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	43.3%	—	2.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	66.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	66.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	65.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	64.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	32%	61.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	61.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗