KEWR / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 17.9¢Risks 17.90u

EPSNO 82.1¢Risks 82.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.10u · EPS −82.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:04+00:00	40.2%	1.0%	34.2%	16.4%	21.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:30+00:00	40.2%	0.8%	24.1%	16.4%	21.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	40.2%	0.8%	24.1%	16.4%	21.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	40.2%	0.8%	24.1%	16.4%	21.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	26.1%	0.8%	24.1%	16.4%	21.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	26.1%	0.8%	24.2%	16.4%	21.9%
2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00	26.1%	0.7%	24.2%	16.4%	21.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	26.1%	0.7%	24.2%	16.4%	21.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	26.1%	0.7%	24.2%	16.4%	21.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00	26.1%	0.7%	15.0%	16.4%	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	26.1%	0.7%	15.0%	16.4%	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	26.1%	0.7%	15.0%	16.4%	21.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	15.0%	2.3%	35.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	15.0%	2.3%	35.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	15.0%	2.3%	35.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	15.0%	2.3%	35.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	7.7%	0.7%	15.0%	2.3%	35.1%
2026-10-15T04:01:44+00:00	8.3%	0.7%	9.1%	2.3%	35.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	8.3%	0.7%	9.1%	2.3%	35.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	35%	71.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	67.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	62.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	67.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261021-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗