KEWR / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 17.9¢Risks 17.90u

EPSNO 82.1¢Risks 82.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.10u · EPS −82.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	2.3%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	1.7%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	31.2%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	1.8%	11.8%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	6.9%	3.5%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.8%	1.3%	0.9%	—	1.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	5.4%	0.9%	6.0%	—	1.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.9%	1.1%	3.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.9%	0.1%	1.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.5%	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	35%	71.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	67.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	62.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	67.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261021-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗