KEWR / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

88%

79%

69%

55%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 74.8¢Risks 74.85u

ICONNO 25.2¢Risks 25.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +25.15u · ICON −25.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:02+00:00	79.3%	89.6%	82.6%	55.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	79.3%	81.2%	82.6%	55.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	79.3%	81.2%	82.6%	55.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	88.0%	81.2%	82.3%	55.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	88.0%	81.2%	82.3%	55.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T15:33:35+00:00	88.0%	82.4%	82.3%	55.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	88.0%	82.4%	82.3%	55.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	88.0%	82.4%	86.5%	55.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	88.0%	82.4%	86.5%	55.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:51+00:00	88.0%	82.4%	86.5%	55.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	88.0%	82.4%	86.5%	55.6%	55.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	52.8%	82.4%	86.5%	34.3%	78.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	52.8%	82.4%	86.5%	34.3%	78.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	52.8%	82.4%	86.5%	34.3%	78.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	52.8%	82.4%	86.5%	34.3%	78.4%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	52.8%	82.4%	75.5%	34.3%	78.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	52.8%	82.4%	75.5%	34.3%	78.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	52.8%	82.4%	75.5%	34.3%	78.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	48.6%	82.4%	75.5%	34.3%	78.4%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	48.6%	82.4%	75.5%	34.3%	78.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:24+00:00	48.6%	82.4%	75.5%	34.3%	78.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	48.6%	82.4%	75.5%	34.3%	78.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	32.2%	56.1%	79.2%	36.4%	97.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	32.2%	56.1%	79.2%	36.4%	97.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	32.2%	56.1%	79.2%	36.4%	97.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	32.2%	56.1%	82.1%	36.4%	97.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	32.2%	56.1%	82.1%	36.4%	97.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	32.2%	56.1%	82.1%	36.4%	97.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:48+00:00	21.3%	56.1%	82.1%	36.4%	51.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	21.3%	56.1%	82.1%	36.4%	51.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	21.3%	56.1%	82.1%	36.4%	51.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	21.3%	56.1%	82.1%	36.4%	51.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	21.3%	56.1%	82.1%	64.2%	51.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:14+00:00	21.3%	56.1%	92.1%	64.2%	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:45+00:00	21.3%	56.1%	92.1%	64.2%	51.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	21.3%	56.1%	92.1%	64.2%	51.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	21.9%	56.1%	92.1%	64.2%	51.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	21.9%	56.1%	92.1%	64.2%	51.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	21.9%	56.1%	92.1%	64.2%	51.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	21.9%	56.1%	92.1%	64.2%	51.1%
2026-10-17T04:40:50+00:00	21.9%	56.1%	92.1%	64.2%	51.1%
2026-10-17T05:27:52+00:00	21.9%	56.1%	92.1%	64.2%	51.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	21.9%	56.1%	90.1%	64.2%	51.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	21.9%	56.1%	90.1%	64.2%	51.1%
2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00	44.4%	56.1%	90.1%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	44.4%	56.1%	90.1%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00	44.4%	56.1%	90.1%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	44.4%	56.1%	90.1%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	44.4%	56.1%	90.1%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	44.4%	68.3%	95.3%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	44.4%	68.3%	95.3%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	44.4%	68.3%	95.3%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	44.4%	68.3%	95.3%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	93.8%	68.3%	95.3%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	93.8%	69.1%	95.3%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	93.8%	69.1%	95.3%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	93.8%	69.1%	96.8%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	93.8%	69.1%	96.8%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	93.8%	69.1%	96.8%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	93.8%	69.1%	96.8%	64.8%	48.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	75.4%	69.1%	96.8%	78.7%	55.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	75.4%	69.1%	96.8%	78.7%	55.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	75.4%	69.1%	96.8%	78.7%	55.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:47+00:00	75.4%	69.1%	96.8%	78.7%	55.2%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	75.4%	69.1%	88.3%	78.7%	55.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	75.4%	69.1%	88.3%	78.7%	55.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	75.4%	69.1%	88.3%	78.7%	55.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	75.4%	69.1%	88.3%	78.7%	55.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	94.5%	69.1%	88.3%	78.7%	55.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	94.5%	69.1%	88.3%	78.7%	55.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	94.5%	69.1%	88.3%	78.7%	55.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	69.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	66.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	66.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	63.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	55%	62.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	62.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261022-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗