KEWR / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

88%

79%

69%

55%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 74.8¢Risks 74.85u

ICONNO 25.2¢Risks 25.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +25.15u · ICON −25.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	42.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	90.2%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	55.2%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	29.4%	46.0%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	71.4%	40.9%	66.4%	—	37.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	96.7%	21.5%	68.3%	—	27.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	25.1%	29.6%	56.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	27.4%	69.8%	80.5%	—	42.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	21.2%	80.5%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	34.5%	84.3%	74.9%	—	51.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	49.1%	79.9%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	62.9%	86.9%	73.8%	—	67.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	60.7%	94.5%	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	81.6%	92.4%	72.6%	—	71.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	90.8%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	91.8%	87.9%	82.3%	—	81.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	90.0%	82.3%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	91.4%	92.6%	87.2%	73.2%	—	79.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	93.8%	86.2%	—	—	81.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	95.8%	96.5%	89.6%	89.1%	86.9%	85.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	92.1%	0.8%	—	85.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	69.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	66.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	66.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	63.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	55%	62.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	62.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261022-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗