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KEWR / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
12%
AIFS
7%
WN2
6%
HRES
3%
EPS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 7.0¢Risks 3.52u
VS
EPSNO 93.0¢Risks 46.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.48u · EPS −46.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-15T10:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T10:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.4% · 2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.4% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.4% · 2026-10-15T10:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00IFS HRES: 2.8% · 2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00IFS HRES: 2.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00IFS HRES: 2.8% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00IFS HRES: 2.8% · 2026-10-15T10:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 2.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-15T10:06:50+00:00ICON: 12.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:0010-15 07:4810-15 09:2010-15 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:006.8%1.9%6.4%2.8%12.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:006.8%1.9%6.4%2.8%12.2%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:006.8%1.9%6.4%2.8%12.2%
2026-10-15T10:06:50+00:006.8%1.9%6.4%2.8%12.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:006.8%1.9%6.4%2.8%12.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON12%62.9°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single7%66.1°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 26%66.3°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS HRES3%62.4°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%66.4°F3.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%64.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗