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KEWR / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
12%
AIFS
7%
WN2
6%
HRES
3%
EPS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 7.0¢Risks 3.52u
VS
EPSNO 93.0¢Risks 46.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.48u · EPS −46.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 29.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-07 06:0010-13 18:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:006.9%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:002.1%————3.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0022.0%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:004.9%————5.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0011.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0011.5%————5.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0013.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0017.9%————9.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0022.0%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0036.4%————9.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0016.2%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:003.8%————11.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:002.4%————10.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:004.3%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:001.9%————8.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:004.2%————8.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0014.7%—2.3%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0017.4%————5.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0042.0%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0028.8%————3.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0016.2%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0026.2%————4.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0036.7%—22.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0042.5%—22.5%——4.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0022.6%—20.2%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.2%—2.3%——1.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:002.7%—1.4%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:001.9%0.3%1.1%——0.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:004.4%—0.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.1%4.2%0.6%3.1%—0.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.1%—0.2%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:001.0%29.1%0.1%2.8%—0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%1.0%—0.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%—0.9%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%1.9%4.1%—0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:003.0%0.0%3.6%——0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%4.3%2.0%—0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:003.0%0.2%2.5%——0.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.6%4.1%1.3%—0.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.6%0.4%9.2%——0.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.4%1.8%5.8%0.8%—0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:001.7%4.0%2.1%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:003.0%3.8%2.3%1.2%—1.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:002.2%2.4%1.0%——0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:002.4%2.8%1.3%0.3%—0.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:002.8%2.8%0.9%——0.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:003.3%4.0%1.1%1.0%0.7%0.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:002.4%—1.2%0.0%—0.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON12%62.9°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single7%66.1°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 26%66.3°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS HRES3%62.4°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%66.4°F3.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%64.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗