KEWR / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

84%

72%

54%

18%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.5¢Risks 55.50u

HRESNO 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.50u · HRES −44.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:03:27+00:00	71.5%	95.6%	82.7%	26.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00	71.5%	95.6%	82.7%	26.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00	71.5%	95.6%	82.7%	26.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	71.5%	95.6%	82.7%	26.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00	71.5%	95.6%	82.7%	26.8%	58.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	72.1%	95.6%	82.7%	26.8%	54.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	72.1%	95.6%	82.7%	26.8%	54.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00	72.1%	95.6%	82.7%	26.8%	54.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	72.1%	95.6%	82.7%	26.8%	54.0%
2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00	72.1%	93.1%	83.7%	17.9%	54.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00	72.1%	93.1%	83.7%	17.9%	54.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	72.1%	93.1%	83.7%	17.9%	54.0%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	72.1%	93.1%	83.7%	17.9%	54.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00	72.2%	93.1%	83.7%	17.9%	54.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	62.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	62.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	54%	59.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	55.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261023-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗