KEWR / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

84%

72%

54%

18%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.5¢Risks 55.50u

HRESNO 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.50u · HRES −44.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	25.4%	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	30.2%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	22.1%	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	66.4%	68.2%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	41.6%	96.7%	50.0%	—	65.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	37.1%	69.6%	76.3%	—	47.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	40.9%	82.1%	46.9%	—	37.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	72.1%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	47.6%	64.8%	50.8%	—	27.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	29.7%	63.6%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	41.7%	63.9%	53.3%	—	19.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	47.4%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	46.5%	56.1%	25.5%	—	15.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	31.0%	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	44.5%	50.0%	20.3%	—	9.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	50.0%	52.8%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	47.1%	54.9%	33.0%	46.1%	11.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	58.0%	—	—	11.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	62.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	62.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	54%	59.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	55.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261023-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗