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KEWR / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 18:51 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
22%
ICON
21%
AIFS
6%
HRES
6%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 11.2¢Risks 11.20u
VS
EPSNO 88.8¢Risks 88.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +88.80u · EPS −88.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.1% · 2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.6% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00IFS HRES: 5.6% · 2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00IFS HRES: 5.7% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00ICON: 21.3% · 2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:0010-16 13:2710-16 16:3610-16 18:51
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:006.4%0.8%31.1%5.6%21.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:006.5%0.8%31.2%5.7%21.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:006.5%0.8%31.2%5.7%21.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:006.5%0.8%31.2%5.7%21.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:006.5%0.8%31.2%5.7%21.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:006.5%0.8%21.6%5.7%21.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:006.5%0.8%21.6%5.7%21.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:006.5%0.8%21.6%5.7%21.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 222%70.5°F5.1°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
ICON21%66.6°F9.9°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
AIFS Single6%65.8°F5.8°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
IFS HRES6%64.3°F6.5°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%64.0°F4.4°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%62.5°F5.0°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗