KEWR / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 18:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

21%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 11.2¢Risks 11.20u

EPSNO 88.8¢Risks 88.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +88.80u · EPS −88.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	1.7%	1.9%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	20.9%	0.4%	—	1.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%	2.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	2.5%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	22%	70.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	21%	66.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	65.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	64.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	62.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗