KEWR / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

80%

68%

31%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.6¢Risks 61.55u

EPSNO 38.4¢Risks 38.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.45u · EPS −38.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	86.0%	35.6%	78.3%	53.7%	27.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	86.0%	35.6%	78.3%	53.7%	27.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	86.0%	35.6%	78.3%	53.7%	27.3%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	86.0%	35.6%	78.3%	53.7%	27.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	87.8%	35.6%	78.3%	53.7%	27.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:26+00:00	87.8%	35.6%	78.3%	53.7%	27.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	87.8%	31.3%	78.3%	53.7%	27.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00	87.8%	31.3%	78.3%	53.7%	27.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	87.8%	31.3%	88.7%	53.7%	27.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	87.8%	31.3%	88.7%	53.7%	27.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	87.8%	31.3%	88.7%	53.7%	27.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	90.4%	31.3%	88.7%	67.9%	79.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	90.4%	31.3%	88.7%	67.9%	79.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	90.4%	31.3%	88.7%	67.9%	79.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	90.4%	31.3%	88.7%	67.9%	79.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	90.4%	31.3%	88.7%	67.9%	79.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	90.4%	31.3%	91.8%	67.9%	79.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	90.4%	31.3%	91.8%	67.9%	79.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	90.4%	31.3%	91.8%	67.9%	79.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	90.4%	31.3%	91.8%	67.9%	79.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	90.4%	31.3%	91.8%	67.9%	79.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	90.4%	31.3%	91.8%	67.9%	79.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	90.4%	31.3%	91.8%	67.9%	79.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	69.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	70.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	80%	70.8°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	65.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	60.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261025-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗