KEWR / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

80%

68%

31%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.6¢Risks 61.55u

EPSNO 38.4¢Risks 38.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.45u · EPS −38.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	18.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	17.7%	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	48.0%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	3.5%	53.4%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	74.3%	52.1%	13.7%	—	45.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	75.7%	55.1%	47.1%	34.3%	—	42.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	51.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	72.4%	60.6%	44.7%	—	40.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	71.2%	73.2%	53.2%	62.5%	50.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	69.5%	—	—	57.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	69.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	70.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	80%	70.8°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	65.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	60.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261025-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗