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KEWR / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
82%
WN2
82%
ICON
68%
HRES
49%
EPS
35%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 58.6¢Risks 58.60u
VS
EPSNO 41.4¢Risks 41.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.40u · EPS −41.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T08:00:46+00:00AIFS Single: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00AIFS Single: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00AIFS Single: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T05:16:51+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:49+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00AIFS Single: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.8% · 2026-10-18T08:00:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T05:16:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T08:00:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T05:16:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T10:34:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.6% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-18T08:00:46+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-19T05:16:51+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:49+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T08:00:46+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-19T05:16:51+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-19T10:34:49+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:0010-18 08:0010-19 08:1910-19 14:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:00:46+00:0081.7%34.8%77.3%47.5%24.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:0081.7%34.8%77.3%47.5%24.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:0081.7%34.8%77.3%47.5%24.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:0081.7%34.8%77.3%47.5%24.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:0087.1%22.9%88.4%62.2%76.7%
2026-10-19T05:16:51+00:0087.1%22.9%84.1%62.2%76.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:0087.1%22.9%84.1%62.2%76.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:0087.1%22.9%84.1%62.2%76.7%
2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:0087.0%22.9%84.1%49.4%68.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0087.0%22.9%84.1%49.4%68.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0087.0%22.9%84.1%49.4%68.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0087.0%22.9%84.1%49.4%68.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:49+00:0087.0%22.9%84.1%49.4%68.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0087.0%34.9%81.6%49.4%68.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:0087.0%34.9%81.6%49.4%68.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:0087.0%34.9%81.6%49.4%68.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:0082.2%34.9%81.6%49.4%68.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:0082.3%34.9%81.6%49.4%67.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single82%68.5°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 282%67.7°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON68%66.8°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend56%64.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%64.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES49%63.4°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble35%62.1°F3.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261025-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗