KEWR / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

82%

68%

49%

35%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 58.6¢Risks 58.60u

EPSNO 41.4¢Risks 41.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.40u · EPS −41.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	14.0%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	41.6%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.6%	2.4%	46.6%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	39.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	68.3%	45.1%	10.2%	—	38.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	47.8%	39.9%	27.9%	—	35.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	65.6%	53.0%	37.2%	—	33.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	64.1%	66.3%	45.2%	54.8%	42.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	62.1%	—	—	49.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	68.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	67.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	66.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	63.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	62.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261025-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗