KEWR / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 13:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

18%

18%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.7¢Risks 10.65u

EPSNO 89.3¢Risks 89.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +89.35u · EPS −89.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:46+00:00	20.2%	0.5%	14.1%	5.3%	4.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	20.2%	0.5%	14.1%	5.3%	4.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	20.2%	0.5%	14.1%	5.3%	4.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	20.2%	0.5%	14.1%	5.3%	4.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	17.4%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	17.4%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	17.4%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	17.4%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	17.4%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	22.3%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	22.3%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	22.3%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	22.3%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	22.3%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	22.3%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	22.3%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	22.3%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-19T05:16:51+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	16.9%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	16.9%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	16.9%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00	23.5%	0.0%	16.9%	6.3%	17.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	23.5%	0.0%	16.9%	6.3%	17.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	23.5%	0.0%	16.9%	6.3%	17.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	23.5%	0.0%	16.9%	6.3%	17.8%
2026-10-19T10:34:49+00:00	23.5%	0.0%	16.9%	6.3%	17.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00	17.7%	0.1%	10.7%	6.3%	17.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	17.7%	0.1%	10.7%	6.3%	17.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:11+00:00	17.7%	0.1%	10.7%	6.3%	17.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	17.7%	0.1%	19.6%	6.3%	17.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	17.7%	0.1%	19.6%	6.3%	17.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	17.7%	0.1%	19.6%	6.3%	17.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:24+00:00	18.2%	0.1%	19.6%	5.9%	27.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	18.2%	0.1%	19.6%	5.9%	27.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	18.2%	0.1%	19.6%	5.9%	27.3%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	18.2%	0.1%	19.6%	5.9%	27.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	18.2%	0.1%	19.6%	5.9%	27.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00	18.2%	0.1%	19.0%	5.9%	27.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:39+00:00	18.2%	0.1%	19.0%	5.9%	27.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:31+00:00	18.2%	0.1%	19.0%	5.9%	27.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	19.0%	5.9%	27.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	19.0%	5.9%	27.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	19.0%	5.9%	27.3%
2026-10-20T04:03:30+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	19.0%	5.9%	27.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00	19.2%	0.1%	19.0%	5.9%	27.3%
2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00	20.9%	0.4%	18.4%	4.8%	18.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00	20.9%	0.4%	18.4%	4.8%	18.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	20.9%	0.4%	18.4%	4.8%	18.4%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	20.9%	0.4%	18.4%	4.8%	18.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	21%	69.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	68.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	69.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	63.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261025-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗