KEWR / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

18%

18%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.7¢Risks 10.65u

EPSNO 89.3¢Risks 89.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +89.35u · EPS −89.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	3.2%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	0.0%	3.8%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	9.9%	3.0%	0.1%	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	2.9%	1.8%	0.8%	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	6.5%	3.3%	1.3%	—	1.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	5.1%	5.7%	1.7%	3.0%	1.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	4.1%	—	—	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	21%	69.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	68.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	69.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	63.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261025-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗