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KEWR / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
77%
WN2
70%
AIFS
69%
ICON
59%
HRES
42%
Consensus
66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 59.5¢Risks 59.50u
VS
HRESNO 40.5¢Risks 40.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.50u · HRES −40.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 34.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 79.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 66.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 85.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 39.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0016.5%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.3%———7.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0041.0%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0054.2%———36.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0054.8%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0026.1%———34.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0033.5%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0027.9%———30.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0049.5%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:009.1%———29.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0014.6%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0030.6%———34.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0093.7%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0074.8%———30.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0054.2%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0060.5%———29.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0060.5%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0036.4%———32.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0054.3%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0059.8%———40.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0085.0%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0076.6%———30.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0075.6%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0013.5%—30.3%—36.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:009.4%—34.3%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:004.9%———28.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:003.9%—15.7%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:005.6%—79.8%—31.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:005.8%—66.2%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:009.9%—46.8%—41.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:003.5%—78.3%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0041.9%34.8%85.3%39.3%31.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0085.8%—64.8%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble77%68.6°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 270%68.1°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single69%68.3°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON59%67.8°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%66.0°F6.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES42%64.2°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261027-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗