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KEWR / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
28%
AIFS
18%
WN2
14%
EPS
12%
HRES
7%
Consensus
10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 17.9¢Risks 17.95u
VS
HRESNO 82.0¢Risks 82.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.05u · HRES −82.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.2% · 2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.2% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.5% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00ICON: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00ICON: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00ICON: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00ICON: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00ICON: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:0010-20 10:5210-20 13:0910-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:0018.2%12.2%14.5%7.4%28.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:0018.2%12.2%14.5%7.4%28.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:0018.2%12.2%14.5%7.4%28.5%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0018.2%12.2%14.5%7.4%28.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:0018.2%12.2%14.4%7.4%28.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:0018.2%12.2%14.4%7.4%28.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON28%67.8°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single18%68.3°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 214%68.1°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend13%66.0°F6.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble12%68.6°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES7%64.2°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261027-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 20 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗