KEWR / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

18%

14%

13%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 17.9¢Risks 17.95u

HRESNO 82.0¢Risks 82.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.05u · HRES −82.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	4.5%	—	6.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	5.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	33.5%	—	4.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	19.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	8.3%	—	6.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	29.2%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	4.0%	38.0%	5.2%	3.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	15.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	28%	67.8°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	68.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	68.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	68.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	66.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	64.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261027-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 20 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Newark runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗