KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

29%

28%

27%

19%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.2¢Risks 59.25u

WN2NO 40.8¢Risks 40.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.75u · WN2 −40.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:33+00:00	22.8%	99.7%	20.3%	36.9%	22.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	22.8%	99.7%	20.3%	36.9%	22.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	22.8%	99.7%	20.3%	36.9%	22.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	22.8%	99.7%	14.3%	36.9%	22.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	22.8%	99.7%	14.3%	36.9%	22.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	22.8%	99.7%	14.3%	36.9%	22.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	28.0%	99.7%	14.3%	28.8%	28.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	28.0%	99.7%	14.3%	28.8%	28.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	28.0%	99.7%	14.3%	28.8%	28.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	28.0%	99.7%	14.3%	28.8%	28.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	28.0%	99.7%	14.3%	28.8%	28.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	28.0%	99.8%	18.7%	28.8%	28.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	28.0%	99.8%	18.7%	28.8%	28.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	28.0%	99.8%	18.7%	28.8%	28.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	27.2%	99.8%	18.7%	28.8%	28.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	27.2%	99.8%	18.7%	28.8%	28.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	27.2%	99.8%	18.7%	28.8%	28.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	27.2%	99.8%	18.7%	28.8%	28.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	82.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000
National Blend	81%	75.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0376
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2016
IFS HRES	29%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.5069
ICON	28%	70.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.5170
AIFS Single	27%	69.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.5300
WeatherNext 2	19%	69.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.6610

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗