KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

29%

28%

27%

19%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.2¢Risks 59.25u

WN2NO 40.8¢Risks 40.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.75u · WN2 −40.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	84.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	81.9%	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	48.1%	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	78.3%	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	89.2%	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	17.5%	24.1%	72.5%	—	86.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	21.0%	99.2%	—	80.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	79.5%	39.4%	92.4%	—	69.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	69.8%	88.5%	61.8%	—	84.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	80.5%	91.0%	54.2%	—	74.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	25.3%	90.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	37.1%	91.3%	26.2%	—	55.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	38.5%	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	24.4%	84.5%	20.3%	—	34.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	31.8%	65.7%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	18.3%	59.6%	23.2%	—	20.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	28.2%	54.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	21.9%	43.9%	17.6%	—	16.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	25.3%	48.9%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	18.3%	43.5%	30.1%	0.0%	19.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	23.1%	48.9%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	19.1%	44.2%	24.2%	—	19.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	17.5%	40.5%	25.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	19.9%	42.6%	24.6%	24.6%	22.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	21.9%	34.9%	29.1%	—	18.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	24.0%	39.4%	26.2%	30.7%	17.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	22.1%	39.0%	20.1%	—	14.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	23.4%	41.4%	21.2%	24.5%	11.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	21.3%	42.5%	12.8%	—	9.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	11.7%	42.1%	9.6%	19.2%	5.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	15.0%	40.2%	20.3%	—	9.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	82.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000
National Blend	81%	75.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0376
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2016
IFS HRES	29%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.5069
ICON	28%	70.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.5170
AIFS Single	27%	69.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.5300
WeatherNext 2	19%	69.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.6610

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗