KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

13%

10%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 20.4¢Risks 20.45u

WN2NO 79.5¢Risks 79.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +79.55u · WN2 −79.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:27:48+00:00	0.1%	52.3%	0.1%	41.9%	3.5%
2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00	0.1%	52.3%	0.0%	41.9%	3.5%
2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00	0.1%	52.3%	0.0%	41.9%	3.5%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	0.1%	52.3%	0.0%	41.9%	3.5%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00	0.0%	52.3%	0.0%	41.9%	3.5%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	0.0%	52.3%	0.0%	41.9%	3.5%
2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00	0.0%	52.3%	0.0%	41.9%	3.5%
2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:00	0.0%	52.3%	0.0%	41.9%	3.5%
2026-10-11T04:30:51+00:00	0.0%	52.3%	0.0%	41.9%	3.5%
2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:00	0.0%	52.3%	0.2%	41.9%	3.5%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	0.0%	52.3%	0.2%	41.9%	3.5%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00	0.0%	52.3%	0.2%	41.9%	3.5%
2026-10-11T07:32:25+00:00	0.0%	52.3%	0.2%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	0.0%	52.3%	0.2%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	0.0%	52.3%	0.2%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	0.0%	52.3%	0.2%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T10:34:07+00:00	0.0%	52.3%	0.2%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T11:20:07+00:00	0.0%	41.0%	0.0%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00	0.0%	41.0%	0.0%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	0.0%	41.0%	0.0%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00	0.0%	41.0%	0.0%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	0.0%	41.1%	0.0%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T15:11:59+00:00	0.0%	40.8%	0.0%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	0.0%	40.8%	0.0%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	0.0%	40.8%	0.0%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	0.0%	40.8%	0.0%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	0.0%	40.8%	0.0%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	0.0%	40.8%	0.0%	39.2%	3.5%
2026-10-11T19:43:33+00:00	0.2%	40.8%	0.0%	13.0%	9.4%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	0.2%	40.8%	0.0%	13.0%	9.4%
2026-10-11T21:13:54+00:00	0.2%	40.8%	0.0%	13.0%	9.4%
2026-10-11T21:59:01+00:00	0.2%	40.8%	0.0%	13.0%	9.4%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	0.2%	40.8%	0.0%	13.0%	9.4%
2026-10-11T23:29:36+00:00	0.2%	40.8%	0.1%	13.0%	9.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	0.2%	40.8%	0.1%	13.0%	9.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	0.2%	40.8%	0.1%	13.0%	9.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	0.9%	40.8%	0.1%	13.0%	9.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	0.9%	40.8%	0.1%	13.0%	9.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	0.9%	40.8%	0.1%	13.0%	9.5%
2026-10-12T04:01:47+00:00	0.9%	40.8%	0.1%	13.0%	9.5%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	0.9%	40.8%	0.1%	13.0%	9.5%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	0.9%	40.8%	0.1%	13.0%	9.5%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	0.9%	40.8%	0.1%	13.0%	9.5%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00	0.9%	40.8%	0.1%	13.0%	9.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	41%	88.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1665
National Blend	15%	79.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0213
IFS HRES	13%	82.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0169
ICON	10%	80.3°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0090
NWS forecast	1%	78.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.0002
AIFS Single	<1%	77.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	75.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Houston runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗