KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

13%

10%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 20.4¢Risks 20.45u

WN2NO 79.5¢Risks 79.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +79.55u · WN2 −79.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	5.6%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.3%	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.0%	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	—	3.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	24.3%	—	1.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	3.5%	—	0.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.4%	0.1%	—	0.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	1.3%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	41%	88.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1665
National Blend	15%	79.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0213
IFS HRES	13%	82.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0169
ICON	10%	80.3°F	7.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0090
NWS forecast	1%	78.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.0002
AIFS Single	<1%	77.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	<1%	75.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Houston runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗