KIAH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

13%

12%

12%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 24.9¢Risks 24.85u

WN2NO 75.2¢Risks 75.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +75.15u · WN2 −75.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:47+00:00	64.0%	69.4%	41.2%	84.0%	60.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	64.0%	69.4%	41.2%	84.0%	60.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	64.0%	69.4%	39.6%	84.0%	60.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	64.0%	69.4%	39.6%	84.0%	60.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00	64.0%	69.4%	39.6%	84.0%	60.8%
2026-10-12T07:48:45+00:00	33.2%	69.4%	39.6%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	33.2%	69.4%	39.6%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	33.2%	69.4%	39.6%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	33.2%	69.4%	39.6%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	33.2%	69.4%	39.6%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00	33.2%	69.4%	54.4%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	33.2%	73.7%	54.4%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	33.2%	73.7%	54.4%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00	26.7%	73.7%	54.4%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	26.7%	73.6%	54.4%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T15:27:38+00:00	26.7%	73.6%	54.4%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	26.7%	74.6%	54.4%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	26.7%	74.8%	54.4%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	26.7%	74.8%	30.7%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	26.7%	74.8%	30.7%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	26.7%	74.8%	30.7%	81.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	23.1%	74.8%	30.7%	48.2%	69.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	23.1%	74.8%	30.7%	48.2%	69.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	23.1%	74.8%	30.7%	48.2%	69.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	23.1%	74.8%	30.7%	48.2%	69.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	23.1%	74.8%	32.3%	48.2%	69.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	23.1%	74.8%	32.3%	48.2%	69.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	23.1%	74.8%	32.3%	48.2%	69.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	23.1%	74.8%	32.3%	48.2%	69.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	21.4%	74.8%	32.3%	48.2%	69.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	21.4%	74.8%	32.3%	48.2%	69.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	21.4%	74.8%	32.3%	48.2%	69.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:35+00:00	14.2%	76.5%	16.6%	27.2%	50.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	14.2%	76.5%	16.6%	27.2%	50.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	14.2%	76.5%	16.6%	27.2%	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	14.2%	76.5%	16.6%	27.2%	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	14.2%	76.5%	16.6%	27.2%	50.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	12.0%	76.5%	16.6%	27.2%	17.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	12.0%	76.5%	16.6%	27.2%	17.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	12.0%	76.5%	16.6%	27.2%	17.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	12.0%	76.5%	16.6%	27.2%	17.5%
2026-10-14T10:33:57+00:00	12.0%	76.5%	16.6%	14.5%	17.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	12.0%	41.7%	4.8%	14.5%	17.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	12.0%	41.7%	4.8%	14.5%	17.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	12.0%	41.7%	4.8%	14.5%	17.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	12.5%	41.7%	4.8%	14.5%	17.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	12.5%	41.7%	4.8%	14.5%	18.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:34+00:00	12.5%	46.5%	4.8%	14.5%	18.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	12.5%	46.5%	4.8%	14.5%	18.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	12.5%	46.5%	4.8%	14.5%	18.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	12.5%	46.5%	2.8%	14.5%	18.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	12.5%	46.5%	2.8%	14.5%	18.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	12.5%	46.5%	2.8%	14.5%	18.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	12.0%	46.5%	2.8%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	12.0%	46.5%	2.8%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	12.0%	46.5%	2.8%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	12.0%	46.5%	2.8%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	12.0%	46.5%	2.8%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	12.0%	46.5%	3.2%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	12.0%	46.5%	3.2%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	12.0%	46.5%	3.2%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	11.6%	46.5%	3.2%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	11.6%	46.5%	3.2%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	11.6%	46.5%	3.2%	12.3%	12.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	11.6%	46.5%	3.2%	12.3%	12.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	79.3°F	2.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	74.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	73.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	74.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗