KIAH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

13%

12%

12%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 24.9¢Risks 24.85u

WN2NO 75.2¢Risks 75.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +75.15u · WN2 −75.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	1.9%	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	1.4%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	37.6%	14.5%	1.9%	—	34.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	38.5%	57.3%	14.0%	—	51.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	50.8%	62.7%	12.2%	—	38.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	26.1%	71.2%	7.8%	—	28.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	29.3%	68.5%	3.4%	—	15.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	4.3%	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	9.0%	38.8%	3.1%	—	5.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	12.1%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	4.8%	22.3%	1.8%	—	3.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	7.0%	28.4%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	6.2%	17.1%	1.6%	—	4.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	3.2%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.4%	18.3%	0.9%	—	3.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.0%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.0%	11.4%	0.9%	—	2.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.0%	8.7%	0.0%	—	1.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.5%	9.0%	0.6%	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.3%	9.2%	0.4%	—	1.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.2%	10.6%	0.6%	2.6%	0.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.9%	9.8%	0.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	9.5%	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	5.4%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	4.0%	0.2%	1.3%	0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	4.8%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	5.7%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	3.4%	0.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	80.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	79.3°F	2.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	74.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	73.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	74.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗