KIAH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≤ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

36%

23%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.5¢Risks 35.50u

EPSNO 64.5¢Risks 64.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.50u · EPS −64.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:57+00:00	28.6%	0.5%	16.6%	29.5%	23.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	28.6%	0.1%	31.4%	29.5%	23.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	28.6%	0.1%	31.4%	29.5%	23.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	28.6%	0.1%	31.4%	29.5%	23.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	27.9%	0.1%	31.4%	29.5%	23.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	27.9%	0.1%	31.4%	29.5%	22.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:34+00:00	27.9%	0.0%	31.4%	29.5%	22.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	27.9%	0.0%	31.4%	29.5%	22.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	27.9%	0.0%	31.4%	29.5%	22.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	27.9%	0.0%	40.4%	29.5%	22.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	27.9%	0.0%	40.4%	29.5%	22.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	27.9%	0.0%	40.4%	29.5%	22.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	40.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	40.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	40.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	40.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	40.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	38.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	38.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	38.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	29.3%	0.0%	38.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	29.3%	0.0%	38.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	29.3%	0.0%	38.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	29.3%	0.0%	38.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-15T04:48:00+00:00	29.3%	0.0%	38.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	29.3%	0.0%	33.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	29.3%	0.0%	33.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	29.3%	0.0%	33.4%	33.0%	30.2%
2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	33.4%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	33.4%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	33.4%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	33.4%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	33.4%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	36.1%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	36.1%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	36.1%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	23.5%	0.0%	36.1%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	36.1%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	36.1%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:09+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	36.1%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	30.7%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	30.7%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	30.7%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	30.7%	25.1%	27.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	30.7%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	30.7%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	30.7%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	30.7%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	35.0%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	35.0%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	28.0%	0.0%	35.0%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	26.4%	0.0%	35.0%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	26.4%	0.0%	35.0%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	26.4%	0.0%	35.0%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	26.4%	0.0%	35.0%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-16T04:24:48+00:00	26.4%	0.0%	35.0%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	26.4%	0.0%	27.6%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	26.4%	0.0%	27.6%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	26.4%	0.0%	27.6%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	26.4%	0.0%	27.6%	31.1%	29.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	26.1%	0.0%	27.6%	31.1%	35.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	26.1%	0.0%	27.6%	31.1%	35.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	26.1%	0.0%	27.6%	31.1%	35.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	26.1%	0.0%	27.6%	31.1%	35.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	26.1%	0.0%	42.3%	31.1%	35.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	26.1%	0.0%	42.3%	31.1%	35.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	26.1%	0.0%	42.3%	31.1%	35.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	26.1%	0.0%	42.3%	31.1%	35.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:50+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	42.3%	29.6%	35.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	42.3%	29.6%	35.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	42.3%	29.6%	35.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	42.3%	29.6%	35.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	41.1%	29.6%	35.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	41.1%	29.6%	35.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	28.6%	0.0%	41.1%	29.6%	35.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	25.4%	0.0%	41.1%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:39+00:00	25.4%	0.0%	41.1%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	25.4%	0.0%	41.1%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	25.4%	0.0%	41.1%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	25.4%	0.0%	41.1%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	25.4%	0.0%	36.1%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	25.4%	0.0%	36.1%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	25.4%	0.0%	36.1%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	23.8%	0.0%	36.1%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	23.8%	0.0%	36.1%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	23.8%	0.0%	36.1%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	23.8%	0.0%	36.1%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:13+00:00	23.8%	0.0%	36.1%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	23.8%	0.0%	31.4%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	23.8%	0.0%	31.4%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	23.8%	0.0%	31.4%	29.6%	38.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00	22.4%	0.0%	31.4%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	22.4%	0.0%	31.4%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	22.4%	0.0%	31.4%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	22.4%	0.0%	31.4%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	22.4%	0.0%	31.4%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	22.4%	0.1%	36.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	22.4%	0.1%	36.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	22.4%	0.1%	36.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	21.6%	0.1%	36.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	21.6%	0.1%	36.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	21.6%	0.5%	36.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	21.6%	0.5%	36.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	21.6%	0.5%	36.6%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	21.6%	0.5%	41.8%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	21.6%	0.5%	41.8%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	21.6%	0.5%	41.8%	29.5%	55.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	24.7%	0.5%	41.8%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	24.7%	0.5%	41.8%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	24.7%	0.5%	41.8%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	24.7%	0.5%	41.8%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	24.7%	0.5%	41.8%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	24.7%	0.5%	39.2%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	24.7%	0.5%	39.2%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	24.7%	0.5%	39.2%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	23.1%	0.5%	39.2%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	23.1%	0.5%	39.2%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	23.1%	0.5%	39.2%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-18T04:14:27+00:00	23.1%	0.5%	39.2%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	23.1%	0.5%	19.5%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	23.1%	0.5%	19.5%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	23.1%	0.5%	19.5%	36.3%	70.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	23.1%	0.5%	19.5%	36.3%	70.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	70%	69.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4970
IFS HRES	36%	72.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1318
AIFS Single	23%	74.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0534
WeatherNext 2	20%	74.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0380
National Blend	6%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0035
NWS forecast	5%	75.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0027
IFS Ensemble	<1%	78.4°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Houston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗