KIAH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≤ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

36%

23%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.5¢Risks 35.50u

EPSNO 64.5¢Risks 64.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.50u · EPS −64.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	92.8%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	79.4%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	91.2%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	85.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	79.7%	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	13.7%	36.2%	74.8%	—	15.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	12.0%	4.9%	35.0%	—	6.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	6.0%	3.2%	35.8%	—	11.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	16.9%	1.5%	42.9%	—	15.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	12.9%	1.6%	55.8%	—	25.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	50.0%	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	33.8%	7.0%	54.4%	—	45.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	26.4%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	42.7%	13.9%	60.0%	—	48.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	33.5%	9.2%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	33.9%	15.9%	57.7%	—	40.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	44.0%	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	35.9%	12.3%	61.2%	—	42.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	40.6%	18.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.7%	33.1%	16.2%	56.5%	—	42.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	30.5%	18.3%	100.0%	—	47.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	35.2%	16.0%	57.0%	—	41.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	33.6%	13.9%	59.5%	—	42.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	40.1%	10.6%	50.0%	28.7%	45.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	41.0%	9.8%	59.0%	—	46.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	58.0%	8.4%	59.3%	28.4%	51.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	41.7%	11.8%	58.3%	—	45.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	25.6%	12.2%	47.1%	24.5%	37.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	29.8%	8.6%	53.0%	—	53.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.4%	37.6%	5.7%	50.0%	31.7%	43.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	32.4%	6.8%	32.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	70%	69.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4970
IFS HRES	36%	72.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1318
AIFS Single	23%	74.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0534
WeatherNext 2	20%	74.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0380
National Blend	6%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0035
NWS forecast	5%	75.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0027
IFS Ensemble	<1%	78.4°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Houston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗