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KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
64%
EPS
55%
AIFS
35%
WN2
29%
ICON
3%
Consensus
37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 33.5¢Risks 33.50u
VS
ICONNO 66.5¢Risks 66.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +66.50u · ICON −66.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-12T07:48:45+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.7% · 2026-10-12T07:48:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.7% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.7% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.7% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.7% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-12T07:48:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-12T07:48:45+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00IFS HRES: 63.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-12T07:48:45+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:0010-12 07:4810-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:48:45+00:0035.4%54.7%29.2%63.6%3.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:0035.4%54.7%29.2%63.6%3.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:0035.4%54.7%29.2%63.6%3.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:0035.4%54.7%29.2%63.6%3.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:0035.4%54.7%29.2%63.6%3.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES64%86.7°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble55%85.1°F5.1°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
National Blend53%85.0°F7.7°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
AIFS Single35%82.4°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 229%81.6°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
ICON3%66.5°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 85°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗