KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

55%

35%

29%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 33.5¢Risks 33.50u

ICONNO 66.5¢Risks 66.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +66.50u · ICON −66.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	11.3%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.0%	56.7%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	62.4%	62.4%	0.1%	—	26.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	27.9%	43.4%	21.0%	—	26.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	15.5%	48.5%	3.6%	—	20.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	53.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.1%	14.5%	1.5%	—	6.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	5.6%	4.5%	0.6%	—	3.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.7%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	3.9%	1.9%	0.9%	—	5.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	6.3%	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	4.8%	26.6%	0.8%	—	3.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	2.2%	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	5.1%	10.7%	1.2%	—	2.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	5.7%	11.9%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	6.1%	11.3%	1.5%	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	4.5%	8.0%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	5.9%	7.3%	1.6%	0.0%	1.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.8%	10.2%	0.0%	—	1.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.3%	7.6%	0.8%	2.5%	0.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.5%	6.2%	0.5%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.8%	5.5%	0.8%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.4%	4.3%	0.6%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.9%	7.0%	0.3%	2.6%	0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.1%	5.0%	0.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.8%	4.4%	0.7%	1.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	64%	86.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	85.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	85.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	82.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	81.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	3%	66.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 85°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗