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KIAH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
32%
EPS
26%
AIFS
22%
HRES
22%
WN2
17%
Consensus
32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 24.6¢Risks 12.32u
VS
WN2NO 75.4¢Risks 37.68u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +37.68u · WN2 −37.68u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-14T15:12:35+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-14T15:12:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.4% · 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.4% · 2026-10-14T15:12:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.4% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.4% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00IFS HRES: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T15:12:35+00:00IFS HRES: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS HRES: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS HRES: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS HRES: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS HRES: 36.9% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00IFS HRES: 21.9% · 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-14T15:12:35+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00ICON: 32.0% · 2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:0010-14 15:1210-14 21:5910-15 04:02
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T15:12:35+00:0012.9%26.4%21.4%36.9%44.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:0012.9%26.4%21.4%36.9%44.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:0012.9%26.4%21.4%36.9%44.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:0012.9%26.4%13.7%36.9%44.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:0012.9%26.4%13.7%36.9%44.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:0012.9%26.4%13.7%36.9%44.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:0023.5%26.4%13.7%21.9%32.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:0023.5%26.4%13.7%21.9%32.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:0023.5%26.4%13.7%21.9%32.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:0023.5%26.4%13.7%21.9%32.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:0023.5%26.4%13.7%21.9%32.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:0023.5%26.4%17.3%21.9%32.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:0023.5%26.4%17.3%21.9%32.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:0023.5%26.4%17.3%21.9%32.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:0022.3%26.4%17.3%21.9%32.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:0022.3%26.4%17.3%21.9%32.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:0022.3%26.4%17.3%21.9%32.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:0022.3%26.4%17.3%21.9%32.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend65%88.0°F3.9°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%87.0°F5.8°F2026-10-14 14:00Pending
ICON32%83.2°F7.1°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble26%84.4°F3.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single22%82.4°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS HRES22%81.4°F6.6°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 217%82.1°F4.7°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 87°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗